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A new study by IPE Global and Esri India has revealed that over 84% of Indian districts are susceptible to extreme heat waves, with 70% of these districts also experiencing increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.
The study, the first of its kind, was released today at a National Symposium titled "How can India address climate extremes," organised by IPE Global, Esri India, UNESCO, and Climate Trends.
The research highlights a worrying trend: the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of extreme heat and rainfall events have surged in recent decades.
India has seen a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days during the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months over the past 30 years. Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study's author emphasised the severity of the current climate trends. "The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events is a result of a 0.6°C temperature rise in the last century. El Niño is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt globally, with India facing extreme events more in patterns than waves," Mohanty said.
He added that recent incidents, such as the Kerala landslides triggered by erratic rainfall, point to the urgent need for action.
The study also found that India's monsoon seasons are increasingly characterised by extended summer-like conditions, except on non-rainy days. This shift has significant implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. According to the study, around 8 out of 10 Indians will be highly exposed to extreme events by 2036.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, highlighted the importance of a data-driven approach to tackling these challenges.
"The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, in conjunction with intense precipitations, are causing significant impacts on lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. A holistic, data-driven approach is essential for informed policy decisions, climate adaptation, and resilience," Kumar said.
The study identified several states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur, as hotspots facing both extreme heat stress and erratic rainfall. It also noted that districts on both the eastern and western coasts are experiencing more unpredictable rainfall events.
To mitigate these risks, the study recommends establishing a heat risk observatory (HRO) to identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level.
It also suggests devising risk financing instruments and appointing heat-risk champions within district disaster management committees to prioritise and unify heat-risk mitigation efforts.
