November is well underway, yet Delhi’s winter chill remains elusive. The average temperature has hovered around 28 degree Celsius in November.
Despite Diwali's passing and forecasts of a harsh winter following a blistering summer, residents are left wondering when the cool air will finally settle in. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that the wait for typical winter temperatures may be longer than expected.
The IMD’s recent two-week forecast has dimmed hopes for a quick drop in temperatures.
October 2024 marked the hottest October in 74 years, and this warming trend shows little sign of relenting. Temperatures in November are predicted to stay 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above average, with daytime highs unlikely to fall below 30°C until at least the month’s third week.
The usual chill’s absence is tied to a lack of Western Disturbances—weather systems from the Mediterranean that typically bring cooler, rainier conditions to North India.
Since the monsoon ended in October, none of these disturbances have reached Delhi or its surrounding plains. As a result, Northwest India has seen around 80% less rainfall than usual, contributing to the warmer, drier conditions.
The IMD’s forecast offers little optimism for a quick change. While a weak Western Disturbance is expected between November 16 and 21, its impact will likely be limited to the upper Himalayas, leaving Delhi unaffected.
Without these disturbances, Delhi’s temperatures remain stagnant, with no significant drop or rainfall expected in the immediate future.
Adding to the complexity, global climate phenomena like El Nino and La Nina are influencing regional weather patterns.
El Nino, associated with warmer temperatures, was expected to subside this winter but has remained in a neutral state. La Nina, which could bring cooler weather, might develop between November and December, though uncertainty surrounds its timing and strength.
Overall, the weather pattern globally is going through an upheaval with the traditional seasons witnessing a shift.
As the warmth lingers, Delhiites must brace for a delayed winter.
Shifting climate patterns may mean adapting to warmer Novembers as the capital’s seasonal rhythms continue to change. For now, Delhi remains in a prolonged autumn, waiting for winter’s chill to arrive.
