Can AAP put up a surprise fight in Haryana?

As the results for the Haryana Assembly elections 2024 draw closer, the stakes for all the political parties contesting against each other are getting higher and higher, with no leaders leaving any stone unturned to reap the maximum benefits from the electorates. From Amit Shah touring the state to mobilize support from Dalits and OBC to Rahul Gandhi seeking to attract votes from Jats, Gujjars & farming communities, the election game has become a nail-biting thing to watch out for, with smaller parties like AAP, BSP, HLP, JJP, ASP, INLD emerging as a major concern for the BJP & Congress.

Out of all the smaller/regional parties that are in fray, it is the AAP that has the potential to influence the electoral influence across Haryana. Although they failed to win the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha Constituency under the seat-sharing pact with Congress, this time with the party going solo, the expectations are neither high nor low for them. So, can AAP put up a surprise fight in Haryana?

The answer to the question is simple yet convoluted because AAP, which enjoys power in the adjacent states of Delhi and Punjab, can influence voting patterns to an extent that can dent the political expectations of the BJP and Congress. With AAP not in an alliance with Congress, it is expected that the votes are likely to get divided between the former and the latter, which will prove to be a tough contest where the margin of victory will be very less. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when AAP & Congress were in an alliance, their consolidated vote share among the Jats was 64%, 68% among Dalits, 51% among OBC, followed by 30% among Yadavs & Gujjars as per Lokniti CSDS Data Unit. So, we can say that in this assembly election, these above-mentioned vote shares can get split between Congress and AAP, and even a 1% swing can prove to be a game changer for both parties.

Other than that, the release of AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal after being accused and arrested by the CBI in an excise policy scam will add fuel to AAP's political campaign. The party, which came into being in 2012 after the 2011 anti-corruption movement to project the needs of a common man (Aam Aadmi), can rightly address the issues faced by the common man in Haryana, which include core problems like unemployment, corruption, inflation, caste conflicts, farmer protests, etc. But on the flip side, AAP doesn’t have any high-profile leaders from Haryana and has to rely on Bhagwat Mann & Arvind Kejriwal to steer the fortunes of the party in Haryana, which can prove to be a futile exercise as regional sentiments matter a lot among voters. The popularity of Bhupinder Singh Hooda and the Hooda family of the Congress has considerable influence across the state, whereas AAP has no leaders of that scale from Haryana, which will lead to confusion among voters about who will be projected as a CM if AAP wins.

Lastly, we can expect that traditional voters from Congress who voted for AAP collectively as a united force during the Lok Sabha Election in Kurukshetra seat (which was given to AAP) have a likely chance of not backing them in any assembly segments in the election because both parties are considered to be the arch rivals with voters expected to stick to their preferred political ideology and faith, and if the same gets reflected in the results, then the political binary will change drastically, which shall give a decisive picture of which party gets the highest number of votes without being in any alliance.

As of now, the scenario of the Haryana assembly election is such that anything can happen whereby small parties can prove to be a deciding factor for the winning party to garner their support in order to get the majority to form a government. The answer to this much-awaited election will be revealed on 8^th October, when the EVM and ballot papers will be counted.