Political analyst Prashant Kishor, who predicted that the BJP will repeat its 2019 Lok Sabha performance but not exceed 370 seats, appeared to side with psephologist Yogendra Yadav's forecast. Despite both having different predictions on the number of seats that the BJP will win, Yadav's prediction suggested that the saffron side with the help of its allies will manage to form a government for a third term.
Prashant Kishor predicted that it would be impossible for the BJP to get 370 seats on its own, and definitely not exceed 400 as several of its leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been claiming. He, however, said that the party wouldn't drop below the 270 mark. A party needs to reach the 272-mark to form a government.
Yogendra Yadav, on the other hand, predicted that the BJP alone won't cross more than 260 seats and will find it "impossible" to surpass the 300-mark. His poll forecast also suggested that the saffron side may even fall below the 275 or even the 250-seat mark.
Yadav, however, echoed Prashant Kishor's prediction that the BJP's '400 paar' claim would not be possible.
Taking to X on Friday (May 24), Prashant Kishor shared a screenshot of Yogendra Yadav's video where he predicted the results of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. Yadav predicted that the BJP would win 240 to 260 seats, and its NDA partners would contribute 35 to 45 more, which would make the coalition get 275 to 305 seats.
In contrast, Yogendra Yadav predicted that Congress would win 85 to 100 seats, and its INDIA bloc members would get another 120 to 135, making the Opposition-led alliance bag 205 to 235 seats.
"272 seats are required to form a government in the country and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them). Now, you can judge for yourself whose government is being formed. You will know on 4 June who is talking about whom," Prashant Kishor tweeted along with the screenshot of Yogendra Yadav's prediction video.
In an exclusive interview with India Today TV on Tuesday (May 21), Prashant Kishor predicted the BJP's seat shares, adding there was no widespread anger among the people against PM Modi. To back his election forecast, he also claimed that the BJP is facing no major dent in North and West, whereas its seats will increase in South and East.
Yogendra Yadav had an interesting take on the Opposition-led INDIA bloc, claiming there might be a possibility of the alliance overtaking the NDA.
He said that if in the forthcoming days, some major political upheavals occur in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar - two of the NDA's strongholds - then there might be a chance for the INDIA bloc to surpass the NDA.
Yogendra Yadav predicted gains for the BJP in the stretch from Kerala to Odisha in both votes and seats. He, however, said the gains would not be "as big as the BJP is expecting".
Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry: BJP's seats will increase by two, allies will bring two seats as well
Andhra Pradesh: BJP's seats will increase by 3, allies will get 12 seats
Telangana: In a direct contest between the BJP and Congress, both sides will see a surge of seats. BJP would see an increase of four seats
Odisha: Four more seats would be added to the BJP's current 8 seats
According to Yadav's predictions, in South India (barring Karnataka), the BJP's seat share will see a gain of 13 seats and its allies will contribute 14 more.
Yogendra Yadav predicted that despite seeing a seat surge of 13 seats in most South Indian regions and Odisha, the BJP would see as many losses in Karnataka.
He predicted that of the 25 seats that the BJP has in the southern state - where Congress is the ruling party - the saffron side won't win more than 12 seats, thus losing 13.
In Bengal, which has been marred by violence and several scams, causing political flashpoints between the BJP and ruling Trinamool Congress, Yadav said the BJP would see "neither a gain nor a big loss".
He further predicted that in Northeast where the BJP performed well, especially in Assam, in the previous Lok Sabha elections, the party's seat gain wouldn't see a jump and would remain where it is now.
Yogendra Yadav predicted that the heartland states where the BJP has a good grip will ultimately decide the party's performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Maharashtra: BJP and its allies will see a loss of 5 and 15 seats, respectively
Rajasthan and Gujarat: In both states, the BJP will see a drop of 10 seats
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand: The BJP will see a loss of 10 seats, with more contributions from Jharkhand
Haryana and Delhi: A loss of 10 seats
Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, J&K: BJP will see a loss of 5 seats in these states and UTs
Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand: A loss fo 10 seats
Bihar: BJP and its allies will lose 5 and 10 seats, respectively
Yadav said that if in the final two phases of the Lok Sabha elections 2024, the wave changes in Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, it might also be possible that the NDA drops below the 275 mark.
Source: India Today